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["Problem 6, Exam TPG4230 (resit), V2024, Prof. Milan Stanko",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Explanation"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"This problem will be solved using monte carlo simulation"]
["Deterministic variables",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Create a column called iteration nr and populate with a sequence of integers from 1 to 500"]
["field plateau rate, qpf","[Sm3/d]",20000000,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Create a column called G. In this G use the VBA function x_normal, with the provided mean and standard deviation"]
["well production potential at initial time, qppow","[Sm3/d]",5700000,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Like this",{"$f":"x_normal(G14,H14)","v":{"$error":"#NAME?"}}]
["Number of producer wells, Nw","[-]",9,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Create a column called t_ini. In this column use the VBA function x_Triangular, with the provided minimum, maximum, mode"]
["uptime, tuptime","[d/y]",360,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Like this",{"$f":"x_triangular(D15,E15,F15)","v":{"$error":"#NAME?"}}]
["discount rate, i","[-]",0.05,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Copy and paste  \"as value\" both columns to avoid dynamic updating"]
["gas price, Pg","[USD/Sm3]",0.1,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Create a new column called NPV, apply the VBA function \"NPV_Snowhite\" (remember to freeze all cells except for t_ini and G)"]
["Abandonment time, tend","[y]",31,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Perform a frequency analysis on the column NPV"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Find max and min and deltapNPV = (max-min)/(nbins)"]
[null,null,null,"Triangular dist.",null,null,"Normal dist",null,null,null,"create column of bin_array for NPV"]
["Probabilistic variables",null,"Distribution","min","max","mode","mean","stddev",null,null,"Create a column called Counts, Apply the frequency function to the NPV column and bin_array"]
["Initial gas in place, G","[Sm3]","Normal",null,null,null,270000000000,20000000000,null,null,"Create a column called relative frequency. Divide each number of counts by the total number of iterations"]
["time to production startup, tini","[y]","Triangular",3,7,5,null,null,null,null,"Create a column called cummulative frequency, this is equal to the current plus all the previous."]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"To find the probability to have a negative NPVs, one most interpolate in columns bins_array NPV and cum_frequency, for bins_array NPV = 0, this gives around 20%!"]
["Output"]
[null,"Iteration nr. ","G"," tini","NPV"]
[null,"[-]","[Sm3]","[-]","[USD]"]
[null,1,266069321100.64395,5.983250931915868,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C20,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D20,$C$10)","v":-55631939.185845613},null,"Min [USD]",{"$f":"MIN(E20:E519)","v":-773811964.49981594}]
[null,2,294312814725.9317,5.1991234264654702,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C21,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D21,$C$10)","v":329721744.25393867},null,"Max [USD]",{"$f":"MAX(E20:E519)","v":1061190079.5374589}]
[null,3,262386125710.12051,6.0359851521254422,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C22,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D22,$C$10)","v":-91531335.317388058},null,"deltaNPV [USD]",{"$f":"(H21-H20)/20","v":91750102.201863736}]
[null,4,303224941693.29883,5.402396279897804,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C23,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D23,$C$10)","v":282055964.01519442}]
[null,5,294584416946.7569,4.0060115365794555,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C24,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D24,$C$10)","v":767014698.43951654},null,null,"NPV","Counts","Rel frequency","Cum Frequency"]
[null,6,266585796119.05746,4.6476214228386405,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C25,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D25,$C$10)","v":390491739.11173916},null,null,"[USD]","[-]","[%]","[%]"]
[null,7,283304612180.73767,5.5822760843259296,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C26,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D26,$C$10)","v":154976922.29182529},null,null,{"$f":"$H$20","v":-773811964.49981594},{"$f":"FREQUENCY(E20:E519,H26:H46)","v":1},{"$f":"I26/$I$47","v":2E-3},{"$f":"J26","v":2E-3}]
[null,8,265675741478.70508,3.8224311716332098,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C27,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D27,$C$10)","v":666512151.06020737},null,null,{"$f":"H26+$H$22","v":-682061862.29795218},0,{"$f":"I27/$I$47","v":0},{"$f":"K26+J27","v":2E-3}]
[null,9,270417897007.58441,4.437431831402094,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C28,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D28,$C$10)","v":485963694.46663666},null,null,{"$f":"H27+$H$22","v":-590311760.09608841},0,0,{"$f":"K27+J28","v":2E-3}]
[null,10,247131335193.54538,4.7282150438245285,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C29,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D29,$C$10)","v":223612936.29237509},null,null,-498561657.89422464,1,2E-3,4.0000000000000001E-3]
[null,11,289662786435.80823,3.8802290392966445,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C30,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D30,$C$10)","v":790691397.25337124},null,null,-406811555.69236088,0,0,4.0000000000000001E-3]
[null,12,275062287285.71613,4.5660789699593458,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C31,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D31,$C$10)","v":468558146.34161997},null,null,-315061453.49049711,6,1.2E-2,1.6E-2]
[null,13,266589443549.3588,6.0172122248862241,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C32,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D32,$C$10)","v":-64134504.364463806},null,null,-223311351.28863338,15,0.03,4.5999999999999999E-2]
[null,14,246665628619.4649,5.560313684933063,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C33,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D33,$C$10)","v":-40223103.63070488},null,null,-131561249.08676964,14,2.8000000000000001E-2,7.3999999999999996E-2]
[null,15,243132235014.78445,4.6326714413688457,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C34,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D34,$C$10)","v":219738141.77474785},null,null,-39811146.884905905,47,9.4E-2,0.16799999999999998]
[null,16,313029716405.78406,5.0600941735934892,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C35,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D35,$C$10)","v":431669356.89296436},null,null,51938955.316957831,31,6.2E-2,0.22999999999999998]
[null,17,245254965439.94016,5.3384528746857969,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C36,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D36,$C$10)","v":17701513.598229408},null,null,143689057.51882157,44,8.7999999999999995E-2,0.31799999999999995]
[null,18,248896690423.70392,6.0172228990874252,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C37,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D37,$C$10)","v":-165497767.3892045},null,null,235439159.7206853,56,0.112,0.42999999999999994]
[null,19,241626575639.71216,5.5865466339171919,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C38,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D38,$C$10)","v":-86553955.599248409},null,null,327189261.92254901,56,0.112,0.54199999999999993]
[null,20,305059375440.99792,5.2812505548651458,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C39,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D39,$C$10)","v":331037443.80776215},null,null,418939364.12441278,56,0.112,0.65399999999999991]
[null,21,315049248372.03284,4.6724838146572685,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C40,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D40,$C$10)","v":583278134.19374084},null,null,{"$f":"H39+$H$22","v":510689466.32627654},54,0.108,0.7619999999999999]
[null,22,273294994352.17352,6.6166790038172945,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C41,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D41,$C$10)","v":-231240625.80255604},null,null,602439568.52814031,36,7.1999999999999995E-2,0.83399999999999985]
[null,23,255882875037.66016,5.0723706305906919,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C42,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D42,$C$10)","v":179571936.37570715},null,null,694189670.73000407,32,6.4000000000000001E-2,0.89799999999999991]
[null,24,293778942566.15472,5.4616996987177542,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C43,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D43,$C$10)","v":233998602.62668467},null,null,785939772.93186784,20,0.04,0.93799999999999994]
[null,25,264299627636.95404,4.7616355182753516,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C44,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D44,$C$10)","v":337657607.50212193},null,null,877689875.1337316,21,4.2000000000000003E-2,0.98]
[null,26,262975000087.12903,4.2447293743471102,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C45,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D45,$C$10)","v":502779429.76445436},null,null,969439977.33559537,5,0.01,0.99]
[null,27,273275646876.32233,4.916687205107845,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C46,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D46,$C$10)","v":337834757.67773151},null,null,1061190079.5374591,5,0.01,1]
[null,28,306326807513.20367,4.5248037618480605,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C47,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D47,$C$10)","v":616187441.70919323},null,null,null,{"$f":"SUM(I26:I46)","v":500}]
[null,29,277426065261.53082,4.6567877130528963,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C48,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D48,$C$10)","v":449732249.54108667}]
[null,30,225877934929.68542,5.7224755837819758,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C49,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D49,$C$10)","v":-263414732.73003531}]
[null,31,287522265691.69495,4.144110800946005,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C50,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D50,$C$10)","v":683523612.61923838}]
[null,32,284376111779.17609,4.5450158554794386,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C51,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D51,$C$10)","v":523919250.33601189}]
[null,33,240798812609.86099,6.400010220296803,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C52,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D52,$C$10)","v":-336251728.06688499}]
[null,34,282501662610.1875,5.4111047523317515,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C53,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D53,$C$10)","v":211049992.75742197}]
[null,35,244357134181.14355,4.1875801059406994,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C54,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D54,$C$10)","v":371284442.04377985}]
[null,36,240369221500.1015,4.814453125,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C55,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D55,$C$10)","v":138872874.07863283}]
[null,37,285056216638.46765,5.266604313382464,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C56,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D56,$C$10)","v":271764640.09667444}]
[null,38,296560338778.22528,4.8843311817141837,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C57,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D57,$C$10)","v":451306465.33831358}]
[null,39,233086266178.21982,4.6303119403062345,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C58,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D58,$C$10)","v":126367830.18965864}]
[null,40,258363291152.8132,4.6741612569146538,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C59,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D59,$C$10)","v":326812171.9642539}]
[null,41,285217010599.57605,4.5191365884191192,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C60,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D60,$C$10)","v":537141243.59730577}]
[null,42,281372564977.80499,6.3933306384583126,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C61,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D61,$C$10)","v":-128794248.62423253}]
[null,43,294651546427.91882,6.1060569064780656,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C62,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D62,$C$10)","v":8435253.712458849}]
[null,44,295336901806.52484,5.2949680190414874,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C63,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D63,$C$10)","v":298607142.03368807}]
[null,45,256374605498.04282,5.4950788479291699,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C64,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D64,$C$10)","v":46948075.69149065}]
[null,46,302359171538.67999,4.810536471998498,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C65,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D65,$C$10)","v":497326944.03995085}]
[null,47,254324222423.77759,3.7307399307585629,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C66,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D66,$C$10)","v":608451784.70324993}]
[null,48,268669580820.68512,5.3439154077749453,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C67,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D67,$C$10)","v":168637999.89047766}]
[null,49,257733191671.57117,5.9316671817600266,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C68,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D68,$C$10)","v":-83926266.138528109}]
[null,50,271996242455.2226,4.216319276693099,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C69,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D69,$C$10)","v":572221128.64861727}]
[null,51,302781023030.20367,4.3436312955722496,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C70,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D70,$C$10)","v":672878145.05070305}]
[null,52,266274460650.33075,4.7775900198545571,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C71,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D71,$C$10)","v":344691621.19132233}]
[null,53,276106961095.50293,3.8780784947580385,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C72,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D72,$C$10)","v":716606770.28229809}]
[null,54,296469488997.34344,4.6776388760655045,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C73,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D73,$C$10)","v":526548962.66500235}]
[null,55,271790527049.71939,4.7855596775154261,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C74,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D74,$C$10)","v":374546083.8555665}]
[null,56,309813863353.38635,4.9402346846609255,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C75,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D75,$C$10)","v":469450916.15254307}]
[null,57,278773211252.67981,5.1795074159039318,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C76,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D76,$C$10)","v":274929239.53899431}]
[null,58,262714577648.40302,5.4924468426563537,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C77,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D77,$C$10)","v":86399928.61021471}]
[null,59,244949475036.67383,6.4418285338808516,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C78,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D78,$C$10)","v":-320484351.57769299}]
[null,60,264566656504.05905,4.5856930398683762,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C79,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D79,$C$10)","v":398464885.14194441}]
[null,61,267611094772.84204,6.2829823015553856,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C80,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D80,$C$10)","v":-145800153.8795166}]
[null,62,253199909433.48163,4.1327074725692885,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C81,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D81,$C$10)","v":465692969.47915125}]
[null,63,262884630249.08774,3.7382389439970218,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C82,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D82,$C$10)","v":674857654.85508633}]
[null,64,303293351593.00415,5.611761018433719,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C83,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D83,$C$10)","v":205956743.36347723}]
[null,65,295143071284.49982,3.9758833087358791,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C84,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D84,$C$10)","v":780687808.72151852}]
[null,66,281752723522.08899,4.9687202088054772,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C85,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D85,$C$10)","v":361924709.75918961}]
[null,67,284118451367.57965,4.8258569456053859,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C86,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D86,$C$10)","v":422943230.69453001}]
[null,68,245346479853.68213,6.2743043225231432,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C87,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D87,$C$10)","v":-267443437.23473477}]
[null,69,252636620227.56061,5.7561602754225074,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C88,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D88,$C$10)","v":-59881095.41206789}]
[null,70,276786979121.94025,5.357986456505226,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C89,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D89,$C$10)","v":204431890.74947453}]
[null,71,276901317650.02716,6.6972624748147771,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C90,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D90,$C$10)","v":-245023432.44721293}]
[null,72,285163020968.86932,5.1411280952003793,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C91,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D91,$C$10)","v":316245755.81042147}]
[null,73,298322160143.23651,4.3234848644513786,{"$f":"NPV_Snowhite(C92,$C$6,$C$4,$C$5,$C$9,$C$7,$C$8,D92,$C$10)","v":664232868.0404911}]
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